Predicting is Fun

Saturday, June 5, 2010

Early Predictions for 2010 Oscars

Picture:
ANOTHER YEAR
THE FIGHTER
INCEPTION
THE KIDS ARE ALRIGHT
THE KING'S SPEECH
MIRAL
THE SOCIAL NETWORK
THE TREE OF LIFE
TRUE GRIT
THE WAY BACK

(alternatives: All Good Things, Love and Other Drugs, Rabbit Hole, Never Let Me Go)

Now, Mike Leigh's film received strong support and love at Cannes. The Fighter has some positive early buzz and looks like is going to be the solid American movie of the year. Inception will be the popular title among the nominees, to keep in touch with the public. The Kids Are Alright is very well received, will be Focus' main push and the gay theme is a plus for political correctness. The King's Speech has Weinsteins behind it and will likely be perfect AMPAS material. Miral is a mistery at this point, but has the potential to be seen as important and relevant. And Schnabel is a damn good director. The Social Network is the weakest link for me. The topic may be popular, and both Fincher and Sorkin's names could matter (not that they always do). It will all depend on how good the film is, obviously... The Tree of Life may be too artsy for AMPAS (like The New World) or just too big to ignore. We'll see... Coen brothers are at top form lately, and they may work wonders with western material. True Grit looks like a solid candidate on paper right now. And finally, The Way Back! It's probably everything AMPAS could hope for. But let's not forget that they don't go for the epic lately. Regarding the alternatives... Well, they must turn out to be really good first.

Director:
Mike Leigh, ANOTHER YEAR
Tom Hooper, THE KING'S SPEECH
Terrence Malick, THE TREE OF LIFE
Joel Coen & Ethan Coen, TRUE GRIT
Peter Weir, THE WAY BACK

(alt: All Good Things, Miral, Inception, The Fighter, Never Let Me Go)

Leigh's buzz is strong enough right now. The rest is all based on how much I trust those films. We won't know if The Tree of Life will click with the Academy members, maybe until the guild nominees. There's a point I'd like to make about The Fighter. Even if the film is a major player this year, I don't expect David O. Russell to be nominated for Best Director. And my only reasoning is that he's not much liked as a person. But you never know...

Actor:
Jeff Bridges, TRUE GRIT
Robert Duvall, GET LOW
Aaron Eckhart, RABBIT HOLE
Colin Firth, THE KING'S SPEECH
Mark Wahlberg, THE FIGHTER

(alt: Ryan Gosling for All Good Things or Blue Valentine, Javier Bardem for Biutiful, Mel Gibson for The Beaver)

Bridges in a role which brought John Wayne an Oscar. How can it miss? He will be way better, that's for sure. Even a back-to-back win shouldn't be seen totally out of the question. Duvall has strong buzz for his performance in Get Low since Toronto last year. Firth's part may be perfect Oscar bait. And the same goes for Wahlberg. Eckhart? Well, I think it will happen someday. So why not now? It's a shot in the dark, but early predicting is the perfect place for it! Right?

Actress:
Hiam Abbass, MIRAL
Annette Bening, THE KIDS ARE ALRIGHT
Anne Hathaway, LOVE AND OTHER DRUGS
Jennifer Lawrence, WINTER'S BONE
Lesley Manville, ANOTHER YEAR

(alt.: Hilary Swank for Betty Anne Waters, Robin Wright Penn for The Conspirator, Carey Mulligan for Never Let Me Go, Michelle Williams for Blue Valentine)

It's probably Bening's year. Finally... Her strong performance in Mother and Child will also help. And I'm not really a fan of hers. Abbass is another shot in the dark. Lawrence may not be strong enough, but just popular enough to get in. Swank and Wright are strong possibilities to get in.

Supporting Actor:
Christian Bale, THE FIGHTER
Ed Harris, THE WAY BACK
Bill Murray, GET LOW
Sam Rockwell, BETTY ANNE WATERS
Geoffrey Rush, THE KING'S SPEECH

(alt: Oliver Platt for Love and Other Drugs, Jim Broadbent for Another Year, Mark Ruffalo for The Kids Are Alright, Brad Pitt for The Tree of Life)

Bale, Rockwell and Rush seem to have baity parts. Ed Harris is said to be good and if The Way Back is this year's winner, he can even win. Get Low may be an actors film and Murray a favorite to many...

Supporting Actress:
Helena Bonham-Carter, THE KING'S SPEECH
Melissa Leo, THE FIGHTER
Lyndsey Marshal, HEREAFTER
Julianne Moore, THE KIDS ARE ALRIGHT
Saoirse Ronan, THE WAY BACK

(alt.: Andrea Riseborough for Brighton Rock, Dianne Wiest for Rabbit Hole, Kirsten Dunst for All Good Things, Jessica Chastain for The Tree of Life, Ruth Sheen for Another Year, Annette Bening for Mother and Child)

This category looks already too crowded. Moore may also win, if she's pushed here. Will Brighton Rock get enough support? I'm not sure yet... Bening is very good in Mother and Child, but the release date was way too early, so the film may be forgotten till then.

Original Screenplay:
ANOTHER YEAR
THE FIGHTER
FOUR LIONS
THE KIDS ARE ALRIGHT
THE KING'S SPEECH

(alt: All Good Things, Inception, Biutiful, Somewhere, Betty Anne Waters, The Tree of Life)

Four Lions is a wild guess, obviously. But it could win over enough people. I guess you noticed that I keep All Good Things as a possible dark horse in many categories. This could turn out to be a huge surprise or totally ignored. But I trust in Andrew Jarecki, the director, whose brilliant documentary Capturing the Friedmans was nominated for an Oscar.

Adapted Screenplay:
MIRAL
RABBIT HOLE
TRUE GRIT
THE WAY BACK
WINTER'S BONE

(alt: The Social Network, Love and Other Drugs, Never Let Me Go)

I don't see a favorite here, at least not yet. So that makes me wonder if a stronger contender is yet to rise...

Film Editing:
THE FIGHTER
INCEPTION
THE TREE OF LIFE
TRUE GRIT
THE WAY BACK

(alt.: The Social Network, Green Zone, Biutiful)

Cinematography:
Wally Pfister, INCEPTION
Robert Richardson, SHUTTER ISLAND
Emmanuel Lubezki, THE TREE OF LIFE
Roger Deakins, TRUE GRIT
Russell Boyd, THE WAY BACK

(alt.: Tom Stern for Hereafter, Tetsuo Nagata for Micmacs, Michael Seresin for All Good Things, Eric Gautier for Miral, Rodrigo Prieto for Biutiful)

Those five look solid, actually. But the alternatives could turn out to be quite worthy too...

Original Score:
Gustavo Santaolalla, BIUTIFUL
BenoƮt Charest, THE ILLUSIONIST
Alan Menken, TANGLED
Alexandre Desplat, THE TREE OF LIFE
Burkhard Dallwitz, THE WAY BACK

(alt.: Carter Burwell for True Grit, James Newton Howard for The Last Airbender, Elliot Goldenthal for The Tempest, Abel Korzeniowski for Rabbit Hole, Rachel Portman for Never Let Me Go, Hans Zimmer for Inception)

They love Santaolalla, we know that. They love Menken too. Maybe even more than Randy Newman. Charest is a previous nominee for The Triplets of Belleville, and the trailer for The Illusionist (which may be the animation of the year) is promising for his part. Burwell should've been nominated many times before. Let's hope True Grit depends a bit more on the music. And James Newton Howard is always a contender.

Original Song: (I know this is impossible to predict at this stage, but I'll take my chance anyway...)
LEGEND OF THE GUARDIAND: THE OWLS OF GA'HOOLE
MY OWN LOVE SONG
TANGLED
TANGLED
TOY STORY 3

4 animations? Well, that's not going to happen... What do you think? :)

Art Direction:
INCEPTION
THE KING'S SPEECH
SHUTTER ISLAND
THE TEMPEST
THE WAY BACK

(alt.: True Grit, The Tree of Life, Alice in Wonderland, Micmacs, The Conspirator, Secretariat, Robin Hood)

Now, a bit more confident about that... The Tempest could work as this year's Doctor Parnassus, a lower budget film with creative art direction. The hospital in Shutter Island was like a character in the movie. I think Dante Ferretti shouldn't be underestimated. The rest is much safer on paper. True Grit may get in. But you never know with westerns. Why didn't 3:10 to Yuma get a nod here, for example? Oh, and Robin Hood had great sets. So why not?

Costume Design:
Colleen Atwood, ALICE IN WONDERLAND
Louise Frogley, THE CONSPIRATOR
Jenny Beavan, THE KING'S SPEECH
Sandy Powell, THE TEMPEST
Wendy Stites, THE WAY BACK

(alt.: Robin Hood, Miral, Agora, True Grit, Secretariat, The Tree of Life)

Makeup:
ALICE IN WONDERLAND
SHUTTER ISLAND
THE WAY BACK

(alt.: The Fighter, The King's Speech, The Tempest, Mr. Nobody)

First, I have to say that I believe The Wolfman won't even make the shortlist. The rest is not anymore speculative than that either. Mr. Nobody had some brilliant aging makeup, but will the film have a decent distributor to push it? Il Divo had that chance, plus the makeup artists were much bigger names in the industry.

Sound Mixing:
INCEPTION
THE TREE OF LIFE
TRON: LEGACY
TRUE GRIT
THE WAY BACK

(alt.: Knight and Day, The Last Airbender, Green Zone)

The Tree of Life is probably the weakest link here. It all depends on how good the film will perform overall. Call it a hunch, but Knight and Day could get in both sound categories...

Sound Editing:
INCEPTION
IRON MAN 2
TRON: LEGACY
TRUE GRIT
THE WAY BACK

(alt.: Knight and Day, The Last Airbender, Green Zone)

Visual Effects:
ALICE IN WONDERLAND
INCEPTION
IRON MAN 2
THE LAST AIRBENDER
TRON: LEGACY

(alt.: Harry Potter and the Deathly Hollows Part I, The Tree of Life)

If they really go with 5 nominees this year... Otherwise, Alice and Airbender could easily be left out.

Animated Feature:
DESPICABLE ME
HOW TO TRAIN YOUR DRAGON
THE ILLUSIONIST
TANGLED
TOY STORY 3

(alt.: Legend of the Guardians)

Will there be 3 nominees this year, or 5? Despicable Me could be left out, but I don't see how the other four could miss a nod here...

Picture in a Foreign Language:
This is another impossible category to predict at this point, so I'll just throw in some possible titles... I'm not sure if Nikita Mikhalkov would let them send anything other than his film, but the Berlinale entry How I Ended This Summer could actually stand a chance in this race for Russia. France could send Of Gods and Men or The Round Up. Both look like potential favorites. And Germany has a baity choice in their hands: John Rabe. The rest is an open field for now. South Korea may send Cannes entry Poetry, but is it an AMPAS kinda movie? Australia has Van Diemen's Land. But is it strong enough? Mexico will probably send Biutiful. But the director's name does rarely matter with the committee...

So, let's take a look at these in a few months again, and laugh a bit. Shall we?

Here we go...

I've been predicting the Oscars since 1992, the year Unforgiven won. I was a complete amateur then, so I went for Scent of a Woman for Best Picture, since it won the Golden Globe. But still did pretty well overall (13 out of 19 main categories).

Then came internet, and websites such as oscarguy.com and oscarwatch.com (now known as AwardsDaily). I became a member of the latter's forums in early 2002. Right after I was mocked at oscarguy's forums for predicting The Pianist to win Best Picture, Director, Actor and Adapted Screenplay at the end of that year. It was long before Cannes, and people were seeing Peter O'Toole as a lock to win Best Actor then, for a movie called The Final Curtain. Yeah, right...

I enjoy awards predicting. Not that I take them all too seriously. I mostly disagree with the Academy's choices. But predicting is just a game, and it's a lot of fun.

I was one of the first few people on the internet to call Marion Cotillard a lock for a win with La Vie En Rose (also the makeup award for the film), back in April 2007, when no one thought it was possible. Lately, I also called the Foreign Language wins of Departures and The Secret in Their Eyes right. I mean, it wasn't just Pete Hammond. There were quite a lot of us.

Anyway, let's start...

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